Salah and Raphinha are the two candidates for the 2024/25 Golden Ball, in which Salah has the same performance as Messi & Ronaldo at their peak.

Two horse race

Raphinha has cemented his status as one of the best players in European football this season after Barcelona’s 4-1 win over Sevilla. He has 24 goals & 15 assists in 35 games, only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (26 goals & 18 assists in 34 games) has more than the Brazilian star, and they are certainly the two leading candidates for the Ballon d’Or.

Raphinha has been directly involved in 39 goals for Barca this season, which is an average of 1.1 goals per game. This is a truly staggering number for a player who was considered to be on the verge of being sold from Barca before this season, not to mention that this number is even greater than many other superstars’ Ballon d’Or winning seasons.

Take Karim Benzema, for example, who won the 2022 Ballon d’Or after leading Real Madrid to a double, and the French striker averaged 1.34 goals per game in the 2021/22 season. It should be emphasized that this is a figure on par with Messi and Ronaldo in their peak years, so Benzema’s victory is obvious.

Raphinha is close to Messi and RonaldoRaphinha’s 1.12 goals/game mark is close to Benzema, Messi or Ronaldo, and for a player like him to reach that level is already very good. The only problem is how Raphinha can compete with Salah, when Salah’s frequency is too terrible: 1.29 goals/game, higher than Benzema’s frequency. Of course, from now until the end of the season, Salah’s frequency can decrease, giving Raphinha a chance to catch up.

Goals & assists stats in Messi & Ronaldo’s Ballon d’Or winning seasons, 2007/08 – 2016/17 2007/08 (Ronaldo): 42 goals & 8 assists/49 matches (1.02 goals/match) 2008/09 (Messi): 38 goals & 19 assists/51 games (1.11) 2009/10 (Messi): 47 goals & 12 assists/53 matches (1.11) 2010/11 (Messi): 53 goals & 27 assists/55 games (1.45) 2011/12 (Messi): 73 goals & 32 assists/60 games (1.75) 2012/13 (Ronaldo): 55 goals & 13 assists/55 games (1.23) 2013/14 (Ronaldo): 51 goals & 17 assists/47 matches (1.44) 2014/15 (Messi): 58 goals & 31 assists/57 matches (1.56) 2015/16 (Ronaldo): 51 goals & 15 assists/48 matches (1.37) 2016/17 (Ronaldo): 42 goals & 12 assists/46 matches (1.17)

Both Raphinha and Salah’s seasons are making Vinicius’ 2023/24 season look mediocre. Vinicius scored 25 goals & 12 assists in 40 games that season (0.97 goals/game), including 15 goals & 6 assists in La Liga, 6 goals & 5 assists in the Champions League. Vinicius certainly played quite well, but with a season that was only “quite good”, he has no chance of winning the Ballon d’Or, and was not even the best-rated winger that season.

Raphinha in La Liga now has 12 goals & 8 assists, and 8 goals & 4 assists in the Champions League, and this is Barca who have not played the Champions League knockout round, and also have 14 more rounds of La Liga to play. Raphinha’s season is now much better than Vinicius’, now will be the time when the race between him and Salah becomes very hot when the season enters the decisive stage.